CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
2-2 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
5-0 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
PADRES
100%
GUARDIANS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.91
CLEVELAND
San Diego
4.81
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
100% Win Prob
A
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
SD @ CLE
5 - 0
Aug 15, 2026
SD @ CLE
1 - 6
Aug 14, 2026
SD @ CLE
7 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
CLE @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 1, 2025
CLE @ SD
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.696
OPS
▲
.925
162
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.7% more
San Diego: 8.1
vs
Cleveland: 6.3
OPS (Season)
+22.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+18.3%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.9
0
SD Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.6
10.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.3
16.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 15.8
14.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.7
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CLE
SD
CLE
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-75
51%
85-82
49%
80-83
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
93-69
55%
92-75
58%
95-68
TTL
51%
82-80-6
56%
89-71-2
54%
86-74-6
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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