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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

4-2  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 12:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

2-3  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Austin Wynns

#38 | Catcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Austin Wynns None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
75%
📊
REDS
25%
RANGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Cincinnati)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

38.2%

Reds Cover

61.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.8%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.0%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
TEXAS
4.7
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
25% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
A
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CIN @ TEX 2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 CIN @ TEX 2 - 0
Apr 3, 2026 CIN @ TEX 5 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 TEX @ CIN 1 - 0
Apr 1, 2025 TEX @ CIN 1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.713 ▲
OPS
.699
183
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +26.1% more
Cincinnati: 7.3 vs Texas: 5.8
Walks (L5) +18.5% more
Cincinnati: 3.2 vs Texas: 2.7
Home Runs (Season) +16.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Strikeouts (L5) +21.9% more
Texas: 8.9 vs Cincinnati: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.5 1
CIN Score 4.7 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 5.8 3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 8.9 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 10.9 4.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.7 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TEX
CIN
TEX
ML
55% 88-71
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 92-70
50% 80-80
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 78-70-14
54% 83-72-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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