PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
1-5 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
4-1 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 1.46 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.46 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
5%
RAYS
95%
PIRATES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.1%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.08
PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay
4.36
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
95% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
A
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TB @ PIT
3 - 6
Apr 18, 2026
TB @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 17, 2026
TB @ PIT
1 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
PIT @ TB
4 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
PIT @ TB
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.728
186
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+67.6% more
Tampa Bay: 11.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.0
Total Bases (L5)
+60.5% more
Tampa Bay: 13.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.6
Hits (L5)
+42.5% more
Tampa Bay: 9.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.7
Home Runs (L5)
+20.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.1
4
TB Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 6.7
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.7 / 7.0
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 8.6
4.0 / 13.0
Walks
0.5 / 4.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PIT
TB
PIT
ML
58%
95-68
52%
82-77
58%
95-68
52%
85-78
ATS
60%
97-66
54%
86-73
55%
90-73
50%
81-82
TTL
47%
73-81-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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