KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
2-3 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
1-4 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
73%
BREWERS
27%
ROYALS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
17.0%
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Milwaukee
2.5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MIL @ KC
8 - 5
Apr 4, 2026
MIL @ KC
2 - 8
Apr 2, 2025
KC @ MIL
2 - 3
Apr 1, 2025
KC @ MIL
0 - 5
Mar 31, 2025
KC @ MIL
11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.743
170
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+28.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7
vs
Milwaukee: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+9.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Home Runs (L5)
+52.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.2
vs
Kansas City: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.8
2
MIL Score
2.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.6
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.7
14.0 / 17.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 12.0
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.9
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
KC
MIL
KC
ML
62%
101-61
55%
89-72
52%
84-78
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
91-70
48%
78-84
58%
93-67
TTL
40%
62-92-8
58%
90-64-7
50%
77-77-8
54%
83-70-7
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