Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ White Sox MIN @ CHW

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

1-4  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

2-3  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Larnach
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Larnach

#9 | Left Field
@
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Larnach None-None -- -- -- --
Sean Burke None-None 5.23 -- 4.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.23
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 4.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
27%
📊
WHITE SOX
73%
TWINS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 72%
Under 0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

46.1%

White Sox Cover

53.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.36
MINNESOTA
3.75
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 MIN @ CHW 6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026 CHW @ MIN 1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CHW @ MIN 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.720
OPS
▲ .826
187 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +81.0% more
Chicago: 1.5 vs Minnesota: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +38.5% more
Chicago: 13.0 vs Minnesota: 9.4
Walks (L5) +36.1% more
Chicago: 4.4 vs Minnesota: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season) +31.6% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.4 6
CHW Score 3.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.6 / 6.3 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 8.8 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 9.4 9.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
MIN
CHW
MIN
ML
49% 81-86
52% 84-78
56% 94-73
50% 80-81
ATS
59% 99-68
59% 95-67
56% 93-74
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 96-69-2
51% 78-75-9
51% 84-81-2
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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