Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Padres CLE @ SD

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

2-3  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

6-0  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Herrin None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Adrian Morejon None-None 1.93 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA Ldr 1.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
99%
📊
PADRES
1%
GUARDIANS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (San Diego)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

23.1%

Padres Cover

76.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

CLE By 1-2 runs

10.8%

CLE By 3-4 runs

5.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.92
CLEVELAND
5.86
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
1% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 SD @ CLE 5 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 SD @ CLE 1 - 6
Aug 14, 2026 SD @ CLE 7 - 5
Apr 2, 2025 CLE @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 1, 2025 CLE @ SD 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.696
OPS
▲ .925
162 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +106.1% more
San Diego: 10.7 vs Cleveland: 5.2
Hits (L5) +46.1% more
San Diego: 9.4 vs Cleveland: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season) +43.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season) +22.9%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.9 2
SD Score 5.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.4 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 5.2 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 11.2 16.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CLE
SD
CLE
ML
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
49% 80-82
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-68
55% 92-75
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 88-71-2
54% 86-74-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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