ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
3-2 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
3-1 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carlos Rodon
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Carlos Rodon | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75
ERA
Ldr 3.97
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
33%
YANKEES
67%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
6.06
ARIZONA
New York
6.43
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
NYY @ ARI
4 - 8
Sep 19, 2026
NYY @ ARI
3 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
NYY @ ARI
9 - 2
Apr 3, 2025
ARI @ NYY
7 - 9
Apr 2, 2025
ARI @ NYY
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.720
OPS
▲
1.041
166
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+159.1% more
New York: 3.9
vs
Arizona: 1.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+97.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Walks (L5)
+42.6% more
New York: 4.4
vs
Arizona: 3.1
Total Bases (L5)
+29.8% more
New York: 21.3
vs
Arizona: 16.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
6.1
4
NYY Score
6.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.3
6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
3.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 10.7
6.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
21.3 / 16.4
10.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.1
7.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
ARI
NYY
ARI
ML
47%
76-85
54%
87-74
52%
85-77
54%
86-74
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
91-70
53%
86-76
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
81-73-7
52%
80-73-8
53%
82-72-7
49%
73-77-9
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