Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Twins HOU @ MIN

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

2-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Apr 3 • 4:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

2-4  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Hader None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
Joe Ryan None-None 4.50 -- 5.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
50%
📊
TWINS
50%
ASTROS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 38%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

48.0%

Twins Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.0%

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.15
HOUSTON
3.35
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 MIN @ HOU 8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026 MIN @ HOU 4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026 MIN @ HOU 5 - 4
May 20, 2026 HOU @ MIN 1 - 4
May 19, 2026 HOU @ MIN 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.582
OPS
▲ .720
4
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4575.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +77.0% more
Minnesota: 1.1 vs Houston: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +61.0% more
Minnesota: 11.9 vs Houston: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season) +52.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.2 5
MIN Score 3.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 6.0 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 12.6 12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 7.4 7.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
52% 84-78
50% 81-82
50% 80-81
47% 77-87
ATS
59% 95-67
56% 91-72
59% 95-66
55% 90-74
TTL
51% 78-75-9
45% 70-84-9
53% 80-72-9
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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