ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
4-2 | Road
7
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
3-2 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 10.00 | -- | 3.2 | 2 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 21.60 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.00 Ldr
ERA
21.60
--
WHIP
--
3.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
57%
YANKEES
43%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.0%
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
6.65
ARIZONA
New York
6.14
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
NYY @ ARI
4 - 8
Sep 19, 2026
NYY @ ARI
3 - 5
Sep 18, 2026
NYY @ ARI
9 - 2
Apr 3, 2025
ARI @ NYY
7 - 9
Apr 2, 2025
ARI @ NYY
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.720
OPS
▲
1.041
166
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.2% more
Arizona: 12.5
vs
New York: 8.7
Walks (L5)
+155.1% more
New York: 5.3
vs
Arizona: 2.1
Home Runs (L5)
+118.8% more
New York: 2.9
vs
Arizona: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
6.7
7
NYY Score
6.1
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.2
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.9 / 1.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 12.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 12.9
26.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.3 / 2.1
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
ARI
NYY
ARI
ML
47%
76-85
54%
87-74
52%
85-77
54%
86-74
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
91-70
53%
86-76
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
81-73-7
52%
80-73-8
53%
82-72-7
49%
73-77-9
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