NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
4-2 | Road
9
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
2-5 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brent Headrick
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Headrick | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 7.45 | -- | 3.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
7.45
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
83%
PIRATES
17%
YANKEES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.4%
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
3.22
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
PIT @ NYY
0 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
PIT @ NYY
5 - 8
Apr 6, 2025
NYY @ PIT
4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025
NYY @ PIT
10 - 4
Apr 4, 2025
NYY @ PIT
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
1.041
▲
OPS
.734
2
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+79.3% more
New York: 2.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+50.4% more
New York: 20.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+47.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
OPS (Season)
+30.7%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.2
9
PIT Score
3.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 9.2
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.8
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 20.4
16.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.8 / 5.2
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYY
PIT
NYY
ML
52%
82-77
47%
76-85
52%
85-78
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
86-73
59%
95-66
50%
81-82
53%
86-76
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-73-7
50%
79-78-6
53%
82-72-7
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