ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
4-3 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
1-5 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.25 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 7.71 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.25 Ldr
ERA
7.71
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
87%
NATIONALS
13%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
14.8%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.08
ARIZONA
Washington
3.5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
166
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.5% more
Arizona: 10.7
vs
Washington: 6.5
Hits (L5)
+13.0% more
Arizona: 7.5
vs
Washington: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+12.0% more
Arizona: 13.3
vs
Washington: 11.7
Home Runs (Season)
+26.5% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.1
6
WSH Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.5
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 10.7
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 13.3
17.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.0
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ARI
WSH
ARI
ML
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
57%
91-70
56%
89-71
TTL
50%
77-78-6
52%
80-73-8
42%
65-90-6
49%
73-77-9
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