Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Phillies LAD @ PHI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

8-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

5-1  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jesus Luzardo
STARTING PITCHER

Jesus Luzardo

#44 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto None-None 1.69 -- 6.0 5
Jesus Luzardo None-None 1.50 -- 7.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 ERA Ldr 1.50
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
DODGERS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Philadelphia)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

23.3%

Phillies Cover

76.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

10.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

5.6%

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.68
LOS ANGELES
7.6
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.762 ▲
OPS
.724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +39.2% more
Philadelphia: 10.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.6
Strikeouts (L5) +13.9% more
Philadelphia: 12.0 vs Los Angeles: 10.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Home Runs (Season) +98.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.7 2
PHI Score 7.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.6 / 7.6 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 12.0 / 10.5 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 15.5 7.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.6 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAD
PHI
LAD
ML
59% 97-67
56% 92-73
49% 80-84
48% 79-87
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 98-67
51% 83-81
43% 72-94
TTL
57% 88-67-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-76-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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