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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

2-5  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 8:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

3-4  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Elly De La Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Elly De La Cruz

#44 | Shortstop
@
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elly De La Cruz None-None -- -- -- --
Trevor Megill None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
35%
📊
BREWERS
65%
REDS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Milwaukee)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

36.1%

Brewers Cover

63.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.4%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.68
CINCINNATI
4.1
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.699
OPS
▲ .743
213 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +48.4% more
Milwaukee: 9.5 vs Cincinnati: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +46.9% more
Milwaukee: 10.3 vs Cincinnati: 7.0
Hits (L5) +46.8% more
Milwaukee: 6.7 vs Cincinnati: 4.6
Walks (L5) +45.5% more
Milwaukee: 3.2 vs Cincinnati: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 2.7 2
MIL Score 4.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 4.6 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 6.4 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 7.0 9.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.2 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62% 101-61
55% 88-71
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 94-68
54% 86-73
48% 78-84
50% 80-80
TTL
40% 62-92-8
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-77-8
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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