ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
5-3 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
1-6 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Crews
#3 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | None-None | 6.10 | -- | 5.0 | 12 |
| Dylan Crews | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.10
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
12
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
91%
NATIONALS
9%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.42
ARIZONA
Washington
3.42
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
91% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
166
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.8% more
Arizona: 9.1
vs
Washington: 6.3
Hits (L5)
+19.0% more
Arizona: 8.6
vs
Washington: 7.0
Total Bases (L5)
+13.3% more
Arizona: 15.5
vs
Washington: 13.5
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Washington: 0.8
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.4
3
WSH Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.6
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 9.1
2.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 15.5
10.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.0
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ARI
WSH
ARI
ML
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
57%
91-70
56%
89-71
TTL
50%
77-78-6
52%
80-73-8
42%
65-90-6
49%
73-77-9
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