Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Brewers CIN @ MIL

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

2-6  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Apr 5 • 7:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

4-4  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joey Ortiz
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Ortiz

#3 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Joey Ortiz None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
25%
📊
BREWERS
75%
REDS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Milwaukee)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

34.9%

Brewers Cover

65.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

14.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.0%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.44
CINCINNATI
3.99
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Loss
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Brewers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Brewers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.699
OPS
▲ .743
213 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +47.8% more
Milwaukee: 9.9 vs Cincinnati: 6.7
Strikeouts (L5) +46.1% more
Milwaukee: 8.7 vs Cincinnati: 6.0
Hits (L5) +30.1% more
Milwaukee: 6.1 vs Cincinnati: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 2.4 11
MIL Score 4.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 4.7 12.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 6.0 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 6.7 16.0 / 28.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62% 101-61
55% 88-71
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 94-68
54% 86-73
48% 78-84
50% 80-80
TTL
40% 62-92-8
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-77-8
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 0 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 6 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 10 minutes ago