TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
5-3 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
4-3 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Torrens
#13 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 5.79 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Luis Torrens | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.79
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
56%
METS
44%
BLUE JAYS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.41
TORONTO
New York
4.11
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 0
Jun 29, 2026
NYM @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 6, 2025
TOR @ NYM
1 - 2
Apr 5, 2025
TOR @ NYM
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.692
OPS
▲
.705
152
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+73.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+53.1% more
New York: 9.8
vs
Toronto: 6.4
Errors (L5)
+53.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.0
Home Runs (Season)
+34.2% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.4
2
NYM Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 7.9
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 6.4
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 11.7
14.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.2
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TOR
NYM
TOR
ML
50%
79-80
46%
74-87
48%
76-83
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
90-71
49%
78-81
49%
79-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
51%
80-76-5
51%
74-72-13
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …