MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
4-4 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
1-7 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Smith-Shawver
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 7.36 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | None-None | 5.19 | -- | 4.2 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.36
ERA
Ldr 5.19
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
88%
BRAVES
13%
MARLINS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
38%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.46
MIAMI
Atlanta
5.16
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
13% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.727
OPS
▲
.757
168
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+41.0% more
Atlanta: 0.9
vs
Miami: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+32.0% more
Atlanta: 13.1
vs
Miami: 9.9
Hits (L5)
+19.8% more
Atlanta: 8.8
vs
Miami: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.5
4
ATL Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 7.4
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.0
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 9.9
11.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.2
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
46%
77-90
48%
78-84
54%
90-78
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-71
52%
87-81
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
56%
88-69-5
49%
76-80-11
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
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