SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
3-5 | Road
1
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
6-1 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jung Hoo Lee
#51 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | None-None | 5.73 | -- | 5.1 | 4 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.73
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
4
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
9%
GIANTS
91%
MARINERS
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.3%
SF By 1-2 runs
15.2%
SF By 3-4 runs
9.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.91
SEATTLE
San Francisco
4.49
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
9% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Giants (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
SF @ SEA
3 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
SF @ SEA
3 - 4
Jul 17, 2026
SF @ SEA
7 - 0
Apr 6, 2025
SEA @ SF
4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025
SEA @ SF
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.13
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.693
OPS
▲
.706
182
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Seattle: 0.5
vs
San Francisco: 0.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
San Francisco: 30.6%
Total Bases (L5)
+34.0% more
San Francisco: 18.0
vs
Seattle: 13.4
Hits (L5)
+18.8% more
San Francisco: 10.0
vs
Seattle: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.9
1
SF Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 8.4
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.8
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
18.0 / 13.4
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.3 / 4.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SEA
SF
SEA
ML
49%
79-81
50%
81-81
53%
85-75
52%
85-77
ATS
62%
100-60
60%
98-64
52%
83-77
59%
95-67
TTL
55%
82-68-10
56%
85-67-10
46%
68-81-11
53%
81-71-10
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