Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Pirates NYY @ PIT

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

6-2  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Apr 6 • 1:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

2-7  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brent Headrick
STARTING PITCHER

Brent Headrick

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luke Weaver
STARTING PITCHER

Luke Weaver

#18 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brent Headrick None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 4
Luke Weaver None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
91%
📊
PIRATES
9%
YANKEES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

68.1%

Pirates Cover

31.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
NEW YORK
3.72
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
91% Win Prob
A
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
C
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 PIT @ NYY 0 - 2
Jul 20, 2026 PIT @ NYY 5 - 8
Apr 6, 2025 NYY @ PIT 4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025 NYY @ PIT 10 - 4
Apr 4, 2025 NYY @ PIT 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
1.041 ▲
OPS
.734
2
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +67.6% more
New York: 2.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +52.3% more
New York: 21.7 vs Pittsburgh: 10.4
Runs per Game (Season) +47.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Pittsburgh: 4.7
Hits (L5) +44.2% more
New York: 11.6 vs Pittsburgh: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.6 4
PIT Score 3.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 11.6 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 9.7 13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 21.7 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.6 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYY
PIT
NYY
ML
52% 82-77
47% 76-85
52% 85-78
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 95-66
50% 81-82
53% 86-76
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 81-73-7
50% 79-78-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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