Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Phillies LAD @ PHI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

9-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Apr 6 • 1:35 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

6-2  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Alvarado

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 1.17 -- 2.1 4
Jose Alvarado None-None 1.80 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.17 Ldr ERA 1.80
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
75%
📊
PHILLIES
25%
DODGERS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

34.9%

Phillies Cover

65.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

14.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

9.0%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.73
LOS ANGELES
6.28
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
25% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.762 ▲
OPS
.724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Home Runs (Season) +98.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +73.7% more
Los Angeles: 1.9 vs Philadelphia: 0.5
Errors (L5) +60.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Philadelphia: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.7 7
PHI Score 6.3 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 6.8 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.9 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 13.5 10.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.8 2.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAD
PHI
LAD
ML
59% 97-67
56% 92-73
49% 80-84
48% 79-87
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 98-67
51% 83-81
43% 72-94
TTL
57% 88-67-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-76-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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