ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
5-4 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
2-6 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Tawa
#13 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Crews
#3 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tawa | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dylan Crews | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
79%
NATIONALS
21%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.24
ARIZONA
Washington
3.73
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
79% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
166
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+57.4% more
Arizona: 11.4
vs
Washington: 4.9
Hits (L5)
+10.2% more
Arizona: 7.4
vs
Washington: 6.7
Walks (L5)
+87.1% more
Washington: 3.8
vs
Arizona: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+66.0% more
Washington: 0.9
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.2
4
WSH Score
3.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 7.4
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
4.9 / 11.4
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 12.0
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.0
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ARI
WSH
ARI
ML
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
57%
91-70
56%
89-71
TTL
50%
77-78-6
52%
80-73-8
42%
65-90-6
49%
73-77-9
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