TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
5-4 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
5-3 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.76
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
43%
METS
57%
BLUE JAYS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.64
TORONTO
New York
4.09
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
NYM @ TOR
3 - 0
Jun 29, 2026
NYM @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 6, 2025
TOR @ NYM
1 - 2
Apr 5, 2025
TOR @ NYM
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.692
OPS
▲
.705
152
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.0% more
New York: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
New York: 0.4
vs
Toronto: 0.0
Home Runs (Season)
+34.2% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.6% more
New York: 10.2
vs
Toronto: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.6
1
NYM Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 8.6
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 7.9
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 11.8
8.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TOR
NYM
TOR
ML
50%
79-80
46%
74-87
48%
76-83
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
90-71
49%
78-81
49%
79-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
51%
80-76-5
51%
74-72-13
45%
70-85-5
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