HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
3-5 | Road
9
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
3-5 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Jeffers
#27 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Ryan Jeffers | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.80
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
50%
TWINS
50%
ASTROS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.1%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
2.94
HOUSTON
Minnesota
3.43
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
MIN @ HOU
8 - 3
Jun 30, 2026
MIN @ HOU
4 - 6
Jun 29, 2026
MIN @ HOU
5 - 4
May 20, 2026
HOU @ MIN
1 - 4
May 19, 2026
HOU @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.582
OPS
▲
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4575.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+52.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.8%
Minnesota: 31.7%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
2.9
9
MIN Score
3.4
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 7.7
12.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 11.4
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 12.0
16.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
52%
84-78
50%
81-82
50%
80-81
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
95-67
56%
91-72
59%
95-66
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
78-75-9
45%
70-84-9
53%
80-72-9
45%
69-86-9
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