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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

3-6  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Apr 6 • 2:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

4-5  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 18.00 -- 0.2 --
Grant Anderson None-None 7.71 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
18.00 ERA Ldr 7.71
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
38%
📊
BREWERS
62%
REDS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

55.4%

Brewers Cover

44.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.1%

MIL By 1-2 runs

17.4%

MIL By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.97
CINCINNATI
3.43
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.699
OPS
▲ .743
213 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +65.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.6 vs Milwaukee: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +27.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Walks (L5) +13.8% more
Cincinnati: 3.2 vs Milwaukee: 2.8
Total Bases (L5) +13.6% more
Cincinnati: 13.8 vs Milwaukee: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.0 2
MIL Score 3.4 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.8 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.0 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 13.8 15.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62% 101-61
55% 88-71
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 94-68
54% 86-73
48% 78-84
50% 80-80
TTL
40% 62-92-8
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-77-8
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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