ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
4-5 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
3-7 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | None-None | 5.84 | -- | 6.1 | 7 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 5.19 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.84
ERA
Ldr 5.19
--
WHIP
--
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
65%
PIRATES
35%
CARDINALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.57
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
3.85
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.691
OPS
▲
.734
167
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.9% more
St. Louis: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+42.9% more
St. Louis: 11.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.7
Total Bases (L5)
+39.6% more
St. Louis: 17.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.6
Walks (L5)
+35.3% more
St. Louis: 5.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.6
4
PIT Score
3.9
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 11.7
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.7
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 17.5
17.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52%
82-77
53%
85-74
52%
85-78
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
81-82
53%
85-76
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
68-81-10
50%
79-78-6
50%
76-75-10
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