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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

3-6  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Apr 7 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

4-5  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Larnach
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Larnach

#9 | Left Field
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Larnach None-None -- -- -- --
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
38%
📊
ROYALS
62%
TWINS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.76
MINNESOTA
3.76
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
187 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +27.0% more
Kansas City: 3.2 vs Minnesota: 2.5
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
Minnesota: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.8 2
KC Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 8.1 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 10.1 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 12.4 15.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.5 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55% 89-72
52% 84-78
56% 90-70
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-70-7
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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