PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
7-2 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
1-8 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93 Ldr
ERA
3.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
97%
BRAVES
3%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.57
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
4.14
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
3% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Walks (L5)
+26.6% more
Atlanta: 3.1
vs
Philadelphia: 2.4
Total Bases (L5)
+24.0% more
Atlanta: 12.4
vs
Philadelphia: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.6
5
ATL Score
4.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.8
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.2
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 10.0
18.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.4
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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