Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Giants CIN @ SF

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

4-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Apr 8 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

8-2  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Landen Roupp
STARTING PITCHER

Landen Roupp

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Landen Roupp None-None 3.60 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.60
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
12%
📊
GIANTS
88%
REDS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (San Francisco)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

42.4%

Giants Cover

57.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

11.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
CINCINNATI
4.37
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
6
CINCINNATI
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Reds (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CIN @ SF 10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026 CIN @ SF 1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026 CIN @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.699
OPS
▲ .706
213 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +58.7% more
San Francisco: 3.8 vs Cincinnati: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5) +31.4% more
San Francisco: 9.2 vs Cincinnati: 7.0
Hits (L5) +17.3% more
San Francisco: 7.3 vs Cincinnati: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +13.5% more
San Francisco: 11.5 vs Cincinnati: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.6 1
SF Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 6.3 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.0 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 10.1 5.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CIN
SF
CIN
ML
49% 79-81
55% 88-71
53% 85-75
49% 79-81
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 86-73
52% 83-77
50% 80-80
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-11
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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