NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
6-5 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
7-4 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | None-None | 1.56 | -- | 7.0 | 11 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.56 Ldr
ERA
2.84
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
41%
TIGERS
59%
YANKEES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
NYY By 1-2 runs
10.0%
NYY By 3-4 runs
5.0%
DET By 1-2 runs
18.1%
DET By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.24
NEW YORK
Detroit
7.45
DETROIT
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.2
C
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
DET @ NYY
6 - 2
Jun 30, 2026
DET @ NYY
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
DET @ NYY
7 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
NYY @ DET
4 - 2
Jun 23, 2026
NYY @ DET
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Detroit
DET
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041
▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+142.0% more
Detroit: 2.1
vs
New York: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
Detroit: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+28.0% more
Detroit: 15.6
vs
New York: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.2
4
DET Score
7.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.2
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.9
13.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 12.2
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NYY
DET
NYY
ML
54%
86-73
47%
76-85
54%
87-73
52%
85-77
ATS
64%
101-58
59%
95-66
57%
91-69
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
81-73-7
46%
69-81-10
53%
82-72-7
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