Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Giants CIN @ SF

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

5-7  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

8-3  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jung Hoo Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Jung Hoo Lee

#51 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 1.69 -- 0.1 --
Jung Hoo Lee None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
21%
📊
GIANTS
79%
REDS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

50.2%

Giants Cover

49.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.5%

CIN By 3-4 runs

13.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.87
CINCINNATI
3.85
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
21% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CIN @ SF 10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026 CIN @ SF 1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026 CIN @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.699
OPS
▲ .706
213 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.7 vs San Francisco: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +16.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Home Runs (L5) +16.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +10.5% more
Cincinnati: 10.4 vs San Francisco: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.9 6
SF Score 3.9 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.2 / 6.8 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.3 16.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.3 / 10.4 26.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.0 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CIN
SF
CIN
ML
49% 79-81
55% 88-71
53% 85-75
49% 79-81
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 86-73
52% 83-77
50% 80-80
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-11
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 47 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 54 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 58 minutes ago
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
si 1 day ago
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4
local10 1 day ago