LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
9-4 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
5-6 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Vesia
#51 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vesia | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 5.63 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25 Ldr
ERA
5.63
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
73%
NATIONALS
27%
DODGERS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.18
LOS ANGELES
Washington
4.2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 7
Sep 5, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026
WSH @ LAD
3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026
LAD @ WSH
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
LAD @ WSH
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.94
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.762
▲
OPS
.744
204
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.1% more
Los Angeles: 1.8
vs
Washington: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+12.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.4
vs
Washington: 3.9
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7
vs
Washington: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+1.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.2
6
WSH Score
4.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.0
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 5.9
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 14.7
9.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.9 / 4.4
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LAD
WSH
LAD
ML
57%
92-69
56%
92-73
54%
87-74
48%
79-87
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
98-67
57%
91-70
43%
72-94
TTL
50%
77-78-6
48%
77-82-6
42%
65-90-6
44%
70-90-6
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