HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
5-6 | Road
6
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
4-8 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 5.06 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.06
ERA
Ldr 4.15
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
63%
MARINERS
38%
ASTROS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.1%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.33
HOUSTON
Seattle
4.51
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.582
OPS
▲
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Seattle: 0.9
vs
Houston: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+36.7% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+31.4% more
Seattle: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.3
6
SEA Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.3
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 12.8
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 10.7
13.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.2
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50%
81-81
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-71-10
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…