PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
7-3 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
2-8 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 1.42 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.42 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
90%
BRAVES
10%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.7
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
4.39
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
10% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+21.9% more
Atlanta: 9.1
vs
Philadelphia: 7.5
Total Bases (L5)
+18.9% more
Atlanta: 14.3
vs
Philadelphia: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.7
4
ATL Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.5
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.8
14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 12.0
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.6
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…