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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

3-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

6-5  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
@
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Joe Ryan None-None 2.65 -- 7.0 4
Seth Lugo None-None 3.24 -- 5.2 6
None-None W-L None-None
2.65 Ldr ERA 3.24
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.2
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
24%
📊
ROYALS
76%
TWINS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Kansas City)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

26.8%

Royals Cover

73.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

MIN By 1-2 runs

12.2%

MIN By 3-4 runs

6.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.2%

KC By 3-4 runs

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.84
MINNESOTA
4.31
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
187 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +13.0% more
Kansas City: 0.4 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
Errors (L5) +77.0% more
Minnesota: 1.2 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Walks (L5) +37.9% more
Minnesota: 3.0 vs Kansas City: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 1.8 4
KC Score 4.3 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.5 3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.9 10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 11.0 4.0 / 15.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55% 89-72
52% 84-78
56% 90-70
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-70-7
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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