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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

4-8  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Apr 10 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

6-6  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bailey Ober None-None 7.11 -- 6.0 4
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
7.11 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
33%
📊
ROYALS
67%
TWINS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Kansas City)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

41.7%

Royals Cover

58.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

11.1%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

KC By 3-4 runs

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.67
MINNESOTA
3.51
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
5
MINNESOTA
4
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
187 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +31.0% more
Kansas City: 9.6 vs Minnesota: 7.3
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.7 2
KC Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.6 / 7.3 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 7.3 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 7.9 / 12.4 8.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55% 89-72
52% 84-78
56% 90-70
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-70-7
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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