PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-3 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
2-9 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.50 Ldr
ERA
3.60
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
92%
BRAVES
8%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.63
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
4.19
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
8% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.9% more
Atlanta: 10.8
vs
Philadelphia: 8.2
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Atlanta: 0.3
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+17.9% more
Atlanta: 9.4
vs
Philadelphia: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.6
2
ATL Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.0
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 8.2
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 13.0
15.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.1
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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