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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

5-8  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

5-8  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Endy Rodriguez

#13 | Catcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Endy Rodriguez None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 1.42 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.42
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
50%
📊
REDS
50%
PIRATES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Cincinnati)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

27.3%

Reds Cover

72.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

12.4%

PIT By 3-4 runs

6.8%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PITTSBURGH
4.41
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734 ▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8 vs Pittsburgh: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Walks (L5) +44.0% more
Pittsburgh: 2.9 vs Cincinnati: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5) +31.5% more
Pittsburgh: 10.1 vs Cincinnati: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.0 3
CIN Score 4.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.6 / 6.5 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.1 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 9.8 7.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.6 / 2.9 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55% 88-71
52% 82-77
49% 79-81
52% 85-78
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 81-73-5
47% 72-81-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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