ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
3-9 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
5-7 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Walls
#6 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | None-None | 7.20 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Taylor Walls | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.20
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
4
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
32%
RAYS
68%
BRAVES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
11.7%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
2.64
ATLANTA
Tampa Bay
3.27
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TB @ ATL
1 - 3
Sep 9, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 1
Apr 13, 2025
ATL @ TB
3 - 8
Apr 12, 2025
ATL @ TB
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.5%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Atlanta: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
2.6
3
TB Score
3.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 9.3
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.5
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 14.2
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.1 / 5.1
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATL
TB
ATL
ML
58%
95-68
46%
77-90
58%
95-68
54%
90-78
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
96-71
55%
90-73
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-75-10
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat