WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
5-7 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
6-6 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Graham Pauley
#21 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Graham Pauley | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
42%
MARLINS
58%
NATIONALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.2%
WSH By 3-4 runs
13.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.85
WASHINGTON
Miami
3.97
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
Washington: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+9.4% more
Miami: 8.4
vs
Washington: 7.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.3%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.9
7
MIA Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.7
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 10.3
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 12.7
11.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.9
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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