TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
9-4 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
5-8 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 4.30 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.30
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
78%
MARINERS
22%
RANGERS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
TEX By 1-2 runs
12.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
6.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.08
TEXAS
Seattle
5.48
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
22% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
B
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TEX @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026
TEX @ SEA
2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026
TEX @ SEA
10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026
SEA @ TEX
3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026
SEA @ TEX
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.713
▲
OPS
.693
183
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+100.8% more
Seattle: 5.1
vs
Texas: 2.6
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
Seattle: 1.2
vs
Texas: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.0% more
Seattle: 8.3
vs
Texas: 6.0
Home Runs (L5)
+43.9% more
Texas: 1.6
vs
Seattle: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.1
3
SEA Score
5.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 8.4
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.0
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 15.2
15.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.1 / 2.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TEX
SEA
TEX
ML
50%
81-81
53%
86-76
52%
85-77
57%
91-70
ATS
60%
98-64
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
78-70-14
53%
81-71-10
55%
81-66-14
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