Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Athletics NYM @ ATH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

8-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

5-8  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Jacob Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Wilson

#5 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Jacob Wilson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
76%
📊
ATHLETICS
24%
METS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

67.8%

Athletics Cover

32.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

14.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

8.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.79
NEW YORK
2.94
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
6
NEW YORK
2
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ATH @ NYM 1 - 0
Apr 11, 2026 ATH @ NYM 11 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 ATH @ NYM 4 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 NYM @ ATH 8 - 0
Apr 12, 2025 NYM @ ATH 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.705
OPS
▲ .719
204 ▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +37.4% more
New York: 4.0 vs Athletics: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +23.1% more
New York: 11.1 vs Athletics: 8.5
Errors (L5) +11.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs Athletics: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +4.9% more
New York: 204.0 vs Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.8 7
ATH Score 2.9 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 6.9 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 11.1 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 9.8 17.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.0 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
NYM
ATH
NYM
ML
59% 95-67
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
52% 84-78
58% 93-66
50% 81-80
49% 78-81
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 80-66-13
42% 66-90-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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