WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
6-7 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
6-7 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
50%
MARLINS
50%
NATIONALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.4
WASHINGTON
Miami
3.7
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+71.4% more
Washington: 1.3
vs
Miami: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+61.1% more
Washington: 1.4
vs
Miami: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.3% more
Washington: 8.6
vs
Miami: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+22.7% more
Washington: 14.8
vs
Miami: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.4
6
MIA Score
3.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.1
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.6
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 14.8
18.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.0
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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