Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Dodgers CHC @ LAD

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

9-7  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Apr 12 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

11-4  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 5.06 -- 1.0 1
Roki Sasaki None-None 3.29 -- 5.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.06 ERA Ldr 3.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
32%
📊
DODGERS
68%
CUBS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.3%

Dodgers Cover

59.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.4%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.7%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.31
CHICAGO
6.29
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 LAD @ CHC 6 - 7
Aug 4, 2026 LAD @ CHC 1 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 LAD @ CHC 5 - 10
Apr 26, 2026 CHC @ LAD 0 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 CHC @ LAD 4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.374
OPS
▲ .762
0
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20400.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +444.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +113.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Chicago: 0.4
Walks (L5) +60.8% more
Los Angeles: 3.9 vs Chicago: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.3 16
LAD Score 6.3 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 5.9 6.0 / 21.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 8.5 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 8.7 6.0 / 38.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.4 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CHC
LAD
CHC
ML
56% 92-73
58% 93-68
48% 79-87
51% 82-79
ATS
59% 98-67
61% 97-63-1
43% 72-94
47% 75-85-1
TTL
48% 77-82-6
52% 81-74-6
44% 70-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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