Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Yankees SF @ NYY

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

10-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

8-6  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 2.63 -- 5.0 5
Tim Hill None-None 3.68 -- 1.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.63 Ldr ERA 3.68
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
65%
📊
YANKEES
35%
GIANTS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

23.4%

Yankees Cover

76.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

SF By 1-2 runs

10.9%

SF By 3-4 runs

5.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.62
SAN FRANCISCO
7.52
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 NYY @ SF 3 - 1
Mar 27, 2026 NYY @ SF 3 - 0
Mar 25, 2026 NYY @ SF 7 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 SF @ NYY 5 - 4
Apr 12, 2025 SF @ NYY 4 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.706
OPS
▲ 1.041
178 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +117.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Walks (L5) +49.1% more
New York: 5.8 vs San Francisco: 3.9
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs San Francisco: 0.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.4%
New York: 59.4% vs San Francisco: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.6 5
NYY Score 7.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.0 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 9.4 14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 13.3 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 5.8 / 3.9 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SF
NYY
SF
ML
47% 76-85
49% 79-81
52% 85-77
53% 85-75
ATS
59% 95-66
62% 100-60
53% 86-76
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 81-73-7
55% 82-68-10
53% 82-72-7
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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