Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Reds PIT @ CIN

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

5-10  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

7-8  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 6.23 -- 4.1 4
Hunter Greene None-None 0.98 -- 7.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
6.23 ERA Ldr 0.98
-- WHIP --
4.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
36%
📊
REDS
64%
PIRATES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Cincinnati)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

27.0%

Reds Cover

73.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

12.2%

PIT By 3-4 runs

6.7%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.09
PITTSBURGH
4.54
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734 ▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Walks (L5) +28.1% more
Pittsburgh: 3.6 vs Cincinnati: 2.6
Runs per Game (Season) +13.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.1 0
CIN Score 4.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.1 / 5.1 6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.4 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 8.8 8.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55% 88-71
52% 82-77
49% 79-81
52% 85-78
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 81-73-5
47% 72-81-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 3 hours, 47 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 57 minutes ago