ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
4-10 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
6-8 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | None-None | 6.63 | -- | 4.1 | 7 |
| Mason Englert | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.63
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
35%
RAYS
65%
BRAVES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.01
ATLANTA
Tampa Bay
3.13
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TB @ ATL
1 - 3
Sep 9, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 1
Apr 13, 2025
ATL @ TB
3 - 8
Apr 12, 2025
ATL @ TB
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.5%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Atlanta: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.0
3
TB Score
3.1
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 10.9
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 2.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.0
13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 19.2
15.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.2
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATL
TB
ATL
ML
58%
95-68
46%
77-90
58%
95-68
54%
90-78
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
96-71
55%
90-73
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-75-10
49%
76-80-11
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