WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
6-8 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
7-7 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.23
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
43%
MARLINS
57%
NATIONALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.9%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.78
WASHINGTON
Miami
3.93
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+60.0% more
Washington: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Miami: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.3% more
Washington: 7.0
vs
Miami: 5.5
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.8
4
MIA Score
3.9
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.7
14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 7.0
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 12.2
20.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.6
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
Otto Lopez Emerges as Marlins' Breakout Star in 2026
Urban Meyer's Top 5 Snub: Why Indiana and Miami Didn't Make the …
Two Minor League Players Hit with 56-Game Bans for Banned Substa…
Braves Borrow Marlins' Bold Bullpen Tactic, Chris Sale Shines in…
Taylor McGregor Bids Farewell to Marquee, Embraces Full-Time ESP…