BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
7-9 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
4-10 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Meidroth
#10 | Second Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.29 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Chase Meidroth | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.29
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
66%
WHITE SOX
34%
RED SOX
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
BOS By 1-2 runs
14.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
8.5%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.1
BOSTON
Chicago
4.85
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.409
OPS
▲
.826
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+500.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+41.7%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5)
+35.8% more
Chicago: 4.6
vs
Boston: 3.4
Home Runs (L5)
+27.0% more
Chicago: 0.4
vs
Boston: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.1
3
CHW Score
4.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.1
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 8.6
7.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 9.4
4.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BOS
CHW
BOS
ML
48%
81-87
50%
80-80
56%
94-74
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
99-69
58%
93-67
55%
93-75
48%
79-84
TTL
58%
97-69-2
46%
72-83-5
51%
85-81-2
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox