Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Athletics NYM @ ATH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

9-5  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

6-9  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Wilson

#5 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kodai Senga None-None 1.06 -- 7.0 4
Jacob Wilson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.06 ERA --
-- WHIP --
7.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
4 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
73%
📊
ATHLETICS
27%
METS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

53.6%

Athletics Cover

46.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

14.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.8%

ATH By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.14
NEW YORK
3.78
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ATH @ NYM 1 - 0
Apr 11, 2026 ATH @ NYM 11 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 ATH @ NYM 4 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 NYM @ ATH 8 - 0
Apr 12, 2025 NYM @ ATH 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.705
OPS
▲ .719
204 ▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
New York: 1.0 vs Athletics: 0.7
Home Runs (Season) +4.9% more
New York: 204.0 vs Athletics: 194.0
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Athletics: 0.9 vs New York: 0.5
Hits (L5) +19.2% more
Athletics: 8.4 vs New York: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.1 8
ATH Score 3.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.1 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 8.8 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 11.6 6.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.3 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
NYM
ATH
NYM
ML
59% 95-67
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
52% 84-78
58% 93-66
50% 81-80
49% 78-81
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 80-66-13
42% 66-90-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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