ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
9-7 | Road
10
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
8-7 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Graham Pauley
#21 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 5.57 | -- | 6.0 | 9 |
| Graham Pauley | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.57
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
9
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
MARLINS
47%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.67
ARIZONA
Miami
4.7
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 2
Sep 14, 2026
MIA @ ARI
7 - 8
Jun 11, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲
.727
166
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.8% more
Arizona: 7.4
vs
Miami: 5.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.3% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Miami: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Arizona: 40.2%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Walks (L5)
+88.8% more
Miami: 5.7
vs
Arizona: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.7
10
MIA Score
4.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 7.8
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 7.4
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 12.3
13.0 / 22.0
Walks
5.7 / 3.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ARI
MIA
ARI
ML
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
56%
89-71
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
80-73-8
53%
82-73-5
49%
73-77-9
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